Research Areas

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Researchers in the group
Paulo Trigo Pereira (PI)
António Afonso
Paulo Brito
Luís Costa
Álvaro Pina
Miguel St. Aubyn
Pedro Leão
Jorge Santos
Emanuel Leão
Margarida Abreu
Nikolay Iskrev
Ettore Panetti
Carlos Santos
Sara Proença
Caterina Mendicino
Sudipto Karmakar
Maria Cândida Ferreira

Objectives:
This area has 3 active research lines. In what follows, we consider each line in turn.

‘Fiscal Policy’
1. To study fiscal forecasting in Europe, with a special focus on the economic, political and institutional determinants of forecast errors (A. Pina).
2. To assess the linkages between sovereign yield spreads and credit ratings, and the determinants of EMU government bond yields (A. Afonso).
3. Additional work is planned regarding fiscal regimes in the European Union (A. Afonso).

‘Macroeconometric Modelling’
1. To make progress on the fundamentals behind recent Portuguese economic growth. This is joint research of M. St Aubyn and V. Gaspar (BEPA, EU)
2. To study the relationship between public administration modernisation and economic growth in developed countries (A. Afonso and M. St. Aubyn).
3. To pursue research on the measurement of the macroeconomic rates of return of public, private and human capital investment (A. Afonso and M. St. Aubyn).
4. To pursue the research line in efficiency measurement (A. Afonso and M. St. Aubyn).
5. To study business cycle synchronisation in monetary unions, comparing Europe with other currency areas regarding output gap correlations and core vs periphery patterns (A. Pina and A. Lopes, ISCTE, UNIDE-ERC and Dinâmia).

 ‘Macroeconomic Theory and Dynamics’
1. To continue ongoing work on several topics related to macroeconomic dynamics.
2. To set up a regular workshop on the macroeconomics of imperfect competition, firm dynamics and macroeconomic dynamics or on the mathematics of macroeconomic dynamics.